Bitcoin (BTC) could rally 160, hitting $150,000 14 months after the halving takes place, according to analysts’ predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report.
Bitfinex used a simplistic and straightforward regression model that projects diminishing returns by analyzing the effects of previous halvings on the price of BTC. However, this model did not consider BTC reaching a new all-time high pre-halving; hence, the cryptocurrency’s post-halving price increase may exceed 160.
The Upcoming Halving Event
The halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently slated for April 20. The mechanism slashes Bitcoin block rewards by 50 and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It decreases the rate at which new coins are produced to ensure a diminishing supply over time.
Historically, bitcoin’s value has increased post-halving due to sustained or increased demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different due to the asset recording a new all-time before the event took place for the first time.
Although this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it has also introduced a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s future price movements.
Bitcoin Could Rally 160
Bitcoin rose 9,300 from $12 to $1,161, 396 days, or roughly 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset experienced another dramatic growth in 2017, surging 2,800 from $600 to $20,000 approximately 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the effects of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700 from $9,000 to $69,000, roughly 11 months after the event.
Based on the analysis, BTC is expected to rise 160 within 420 days, or 14 months after the next halving. This offers a guideline for the expectations of Bitcoin’s post-halving market behavior.
“This estimation aligns with the observed trend of diminishing percentage increases following each halving event. With a conservative estimate placing the price of BTC at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160 percent price increase would lead to BTC price ranging from approximately $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex stated.
