Bitcoin has fallen almost 10 from its all-time high and dipped back into five figures briefly during late weekend trading.

While institutional demand remains strong, the correction could continue into July if history rhymes, observed analysts.

Market analyst Benjamin Cowen said that “Bitcoin would likely start exhibiting some weakness around mid-June as the Q3 weakness starts to present itself.”

This is playing out now and has done so for the last couple of years. The analysts predicted that the next low will be in August or September.

Bitcoin Q3 Bearishness

Other analysts posted charts of big dips in June and July, which led to a bearish Q3 in previous cycles before a lift-off in late Q4 of the bull market year.

“Will likely see BTC back at its bull market support band soon, back in the mid-$90k range,” said Cowen.

Bitcoin fell around 35 from June to July 2017 before surging to an all-time high in December that year. The asset fell 27 in those two months in 2019, and 25 between June and July in 2021, another bull market year.

It dumped 38 between June and July in 2022 and lost 21 in 2024, so the summer slump has been pretty reliable in recent years.

A similar decline from June’s high of $110,000 could see the asset fall by around 30 to below $80,000 before the end of July if history repeats.

Chart guru Peter Brandt identified what he termed a “four red rooster” chart pattern depicting several large red candles as the down trend accelerated.

Weak Weekly Close

Bitcoin closed the week below the key $104,400 level after holding it as support for weeks. The asset is “now on the cusp of potentially breaking down here,” observed analyst ‘Rekt Capital.’

BTC was recovering from its dip to $98,480 on Sunday and was approaching $102,000 at the time of writing. However, it remains down almost 8 from its June high of $110,000.

MN Fund co-founder Michaël van de Poppe commented on Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz as the next step in the escalation.

“As long as this keeps happening, there’s no sign that risk-on assets like Bitcoin and altcoins will reverse,” he said, calling it a “capitulation.”

A highly volatile week lies ahead with key inflation reports released in the United States and all eyes on the Middle East as the rhetoric is ramped up.