Bitcoin remains steady above $107,000 as traders weigh upcoming macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve commentary, and geopolitical signals. The crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture as June draws to a close, with the Federal Reserve maintaining rates at 4.25-4.5 and oil prices continuing to slide as fears subsided about the possibility that supply could be hurt by attacks on infrastructure or disruptions to shipping lanes.
The S&P 500 is now up 2 since the start of 2025, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq approaches record levels, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets. The recent de-escalation in Middle East tensions has eased energy market pressures, with oil retreating from its spike above $77 to the mid-$60s range and commodities like gold and silver also pushing the brakes.
Where does crypto go from here? Predictors on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, currently favor the price of BTC staying above the $108,000 mark this week, but only by a slight margin. Myriad users have the odds set to 51 that Bitcoin stays at or above $108 by July 4. But could there be fireworks? Here’s what the charts say:
Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish momentum building
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingViewThe weekly chart reveals several bullish signals converging. The 50-day EMA (the average price of BTC over the last 50 days) sits firmly below current prices at approximately $87,918, providing robust support. More importantly, the gap between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs continues to widen—a classic sign of sustained upward momentum that typically attracts trend-following traders.
Despite the coin being on a downwards channel, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, reading of 24 has been sitting on the minimum threshold on longer timeframes, signaling a strengthening trend. The ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction—readings below 20 indicate no trend, while values above 25 confirm an established trend. This crossing suggests Bitcoin may be entering a more decisive directional move after weeks of consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, at 62 indicates healthy bullish momentum without approaching overbought territory. The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes on a scale of 0-100. Readings above 70 typically signal overbought conditions where traders might expect a pullback while below 30 suggests oversold levels. Bitcoin‘s current reading in the low 60s indicates room for further upside before hitting resistance, but the hype is slowing down with time, as is easy to see by the decreasing readings since early May.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows an "OFF" status, meaning volatility has already been released from the recent compression phase. This typically occurs after a significant move and suggests the market is digesting gains before the next leg.
Key Levels
- Immediate support: $102,000 ( accumulation zone)
- Strong support: $100,000 (psychological level)
- Immediate resistance: $110,000 (approach to all-time high)
- Strong resistance: $115,000 (measured move target)
Ethereum (ETH): Breaking free from consolidation
Ethereum‘s 12.2 weekly surge to $2,474 provides some relief after months of underperformance, but technical indicators paint a more complex picture on the weekly timeframe.
Ethereum price data. Image: TradingViewLooking at the weekly chart, Ethereum shows concerning divergence from Bitcoin‘s strength. The price currently sits at $2,474, having recovered from recent lows but still trading below both key moving averages. The 200-week EMA (shown as the slower moving average) appears to be around $2,552, while the 50-week EMA sits higher at approximately $2,707. This configuration—with price bouncing between the two averages—typically indicates a consolidation price structure that concerns medium-term investors.
The ADX at 21 shows no trend status, confirming what the price action suggests: Ethereum is stuck in a wide trading range without clear directional momentum. An ADX below 25 indicates the absence of a strong trend, meaning traders should expect continued choppy, range-bound action rather than sustained directional moves.
The RSI at 51 sits right at the neutral midpoint, neither overbought nor oversold. While this leaves room for movement in either direction, it also reflects the market‘s indecision. After a 12 weekly gain, one might expect stronger momentum readings—the fact that RSI remains neutral suggests this could be more of a relief bounce than the start of a new uptrend.
This indecision is also reflected on the Myriad prediction market, where users are currently split on Ethereum’s next move: Will it rise to $3,000 or drop back down to $2,000 before the end of the year? Predictors are still slightly more bullish than bearish, with users currently placing the odds at 55.1 that ETH moons instead of dips.
On the other hand, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator showing "OFF" with a "Short" bias adds another bearish element. This suggests that after the recent volatility expansion, the market may be setting up for another move lower rather than continuing higher.
Most concerning is the overall chart pattern: ETH appears to be forming a large descending triangle or range between roughly $1,500 support and $3,000-$3,500 resistance. The recent bounce from $1,500 may be encouraging for traders, but until ETH’s price can break and hold above the moving averages, the technical picture remains challenging. Note that since March 2024, prices have shown a pattern of a quick jump followed by a slower dip that erases gains—with later spikes unable to break previous resistances.
Key Levels
- Immediate support: $2,250 (recent consolidation low)
- Strong support: $1,500-$1,750 (major support zone tested multiple times)
- Immediate resistance: $2,552 (50-week EMA)
- Strong resistance: $2,707 (200-week EMA) and $3,000 (psychological level)
Solana (SOL): The week‘s breakout star
Solana price data. Image: TradingViewSolana‘s explosive 16.5 weekly gain to $158.12 positions it as the clear outperformer, driven by U.S. regulators moving forward in the regulatory process necessary to make spot SOL exchange-traded funds in the U.S. market a reality.
Looking at the weekly chart, Solana presents the most bullish technical picture of the three major cryptocurrencies, though not without its nuances. Currently trading at $158.12, Solana is heading to decisively reclaim position above both its 50-week EMA (approximately $150) and more importantly, the 200-week EMA is sitting at around $100. This configuration—with price above both weekly EMAs—represents a bullish market structure that typically attracts positional buyers.
However, the ADX reading of just 13 with no trend status reveals an important detail: Despite the impressive 16.5 weekly gain, Solana hasn‘t yet established a strong trending environment on the weekly timeframe. ADX below 20 indicates very weak trend strength, suggesting this move could be more of a sharp bounce within a range rather than the start of a sustained trend. This low reading might actually provide opportunity for traders: If SOL can maintain these levels and ADX begins rising above 20-25, it would confirm a new trend is forming.
The RSI at 59 shows moderate bullish momentum, having risen from earlier oversold conditions but not yet reaching overbought territory above 70. This healthy reading suggests there‘s room for further upside without immediate technical resistance from momentum indicators.
Most notably, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows "ON" status on the weekly timeframe, indicating the market is in a compression phase. This is particularly interesting given the recent price surge—it suggests that despite the 16.5 move, volatility remains relatively compressed on the longer timeframe. When weekly squeezes fire, they often lead to sustained multi-week or even multi-month moves.
The volume profile shows significant accumulation in the $100-120 range, which should now act as strong support. The recent breakout above $140 on increased volume is encouraging for SOL bulls.
Key Levels
- Immediate support: $140 (200-week EMA and psychological level)
- Strong support: $100-120 (high volume accumulation zone)
- Immediate resistance: $160-180 (a level that has been in play since 2024)
- Strong resistance: $200-210 (measured move target from the base pattern)
